Çin dünya ekonomisinin motoru... Son dönemde Çin’den ekonomide bir ‘yumuşak
iniş’ emarelerini gösteren veriler gelmeye başladı. Örneğin ülkenin ticaret
fazlası milli gelirin yüzde 9’undan, 2011 sonunda yüzde 3,3’üne geriledi. Çin
sadece ihracatçı değil, aynı zamanda dünyanın en büyük ithalatçılarından.. Peki
en gözde müşteri Çin olan ülkeler hangileri. UBS’in araştırmasına göre, Rusya’nın
büyümesinin 1,7 puanlık bölümü Çin’e yaptığı ihracattan geliyor. Rusya olası
bir Çin yumuşak inişinden en fazla etkilenecek ülke gibi görünüyor. İkinci
sırada Endonezya var. Endonezya’nın milli gelirinin yüzde 1,3’ü Çin’e yaptığı
ihracattan geliyor. Listede üçüncü sırada G.Kore, dördüncü sırada Brezilya var.
Beşinci sırada ise Avrupa Birliği’nin sarsılmaz! Lideri Almanya geliyor.
Raporun orjinalini okumak için haberin devamını tıklayın.
China is best known as the world's export driver as the hopes of every
exporting nation in the world are pinned on the eventual transition of the
economy to domestic consumption and hence greater imports. While China has
contributed most to Global GDP growth in the past few years, some argue that
this growth is not as 'helpful' as US growth to other countries - since China
does not import much other than commodities (and less steel now). However, as
UBS' Tao Wang points out today, that claim is not quite as valid now as before
the financials crisis. China's
imports have far outpaced exports in the past 4 years, and trade surplus has
shrunk from 9% of GDP in 2007 to 3.3% in 2011. China's 2011
import data shows two sets of information that should be common knowledge by
now: 1) China imports a lot from East and Southeast Asian economies (and is the
largest market for almost all major economies in the region); and 2) China
imports a huge amount of energy and resources (metals and minerals) benefiting
Australia and Brazil significantly. But exports
to China have become increasingly important for developed economies such as
Japan, Germany, and the EU in
general and perhaps more concerning is the fact that large emerging
market economies may find it increasingly difficult to 'decouple' from China. These two charts
show just how large an impact any slowing in Chinese growth and demand will
have on some of the largest and most 'decoupled' growth nations - it is clear
the BRICs are increasingly self-reliant (and potentially self destructive).
UBS: China, The World's Importer
China is known as the world’s export machine. As
for its importance as an importer, much of the world is supposedly still
waiting for the country to reorient its economy to domestic demand and import
more. Although China has contributed the most to global GDP growth in the past
few years, many people would argue that China’s growth is not as “helpful” as
US growth to other countries, since China does not import much other than
commodities.
However, this claim is not quite as valid now as
before the global financial crisis. For one thing, China’s imports have
far outpaced exports in the past 4 years, and trade surplus has shrunk from 9%
of GDP in 2007 to 3.3% in 2011.
Also, as the numerous stories in financial
newspapers can testify, China has become an increasingly important
market for investment goods and certain high end consumer goods.
China’s 2011 import data still show two sets of
information that should be common knowledge by now. First, China imports a lot from
East and Southeast Asian economies and is the largest market for almost all
major economies in the region. However, as the region is highly integrated
in the global supply chain, a large share of exports from economies like
Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia and Korea to China are processing components that
will be assembled in China and re-exported. These economies’ exposure to China
is largely an indirect exposure to developed markets. Second, China
imports a huge amount of energy and resources (metals and minerals) mainly for
its domestic use, which has benefited commodity exporters such as Australia
and Brazil significantly.
We would like to highlight two additional points
on China as the world’s importer.
First, exports to China have become increasingly
important for some large developed economies such as Japan, Germany and the EU
in general. For Japan, the
case is pretty clear – exports to China account for about 23% of Japan’s total
exports and about 3.5% of its GDP. For other large countries, although their
exports to China are relatively smaller, they are the parts that are growing
faster. German exports to China only account for 6% of its total exports,
but because they grew faster, we estimate that exports to China have
contributed to about 20% of German GDP growth in 2011. For the EU, again
exports to China account for only 1.2% of its GDP, but they have contributed to
about ¼ of one percent of GDP growth in 2011. Among the large economies, the US
is an exception – we estimate that exports to China have contributed to only
0.1 percentage point of GDP growth in 2011, partly because overall exports as a
share of US GDP are relatively small.
Second, some large emerging market economies may
find it increasingly difficult to “decouple” from China. We have often heard from investors who are
concerned about the sustainability of China’s growth that they prefer some
other large emerging economies. However, trade data suggest that the
correlations between other large emerging economies and China have increased.
For a country like Brazil, it may be easy to see – we estimate that China’s
import demand has directly contributed to about 0.9 percentage points of
Brazilian GDP growth in 2011, not adjusting for any terms of trade effect. For
Indonesia, another economy with a large domestic market, exports to China
contributed to 1.3 percentage points of the 2011 GDP growth. For India, an even
larger economy that is not known as a main commodity exporter, China’s domestic
demand contributed to about 0.6 percentage point of its GDP growth in 2011,
according to our estimate. For Korea, the direct impact is estimated to be
about 1.2 percentage points.
So while everyone's expectations for a
nirvana-like Chinese soft landing and US decoupling remain 'priced in', with
last night's iron ore demand (and implicit Chinese growth expectations) along
with our earlier comments on the overstated nature of US growth that perhaps
once again traders (and economists and extrapolators) have got a little ahead
of themselves with this self-sustaining we-don't-need-no-QE recovery.
