 |
| Fotoğraf, Der Spiegel'den alınmıştır |
Yunanistan'ın
borç takasına ilişkin görüşmeler sürüyor. Ülke belki kurtarılacak belki de
iflas bayrağını çekecek. Ancak Avrupa Birliği içerisindeki ülkelerin halkları
arasındaki nefret tohumları artıyor. Yunanistan kurtulsa bile, Yunan halkının
uzun bir süre Almanya'yı iyi hatırlamayacağı kesin. Dün Yunanistan'da gerçekleştirilen
gösterilerde Alman bayrağı yakıldı. Almanya'nın ünlü Der Spiegel Dergisi bunun
üzerine Alman bayrağının yakıldığı fotoğrafı manşetine taşıdı ve 'Yunanistan'ı
kurtam saçmalığına son verme zamanı' başlığı ile oldukça bir sert yazı
yayımladı. Yazıda Alman vergi mükelleflerinin neden Yunanistan için ellerine
ceplerine attığı sorgulandı. Yazının sonunda da 'Yunanistan iflas etmeli'
yargısı yer aldı. Görünen o ki Alman kamuouyu da Yunanistan konusunda pek de
sevecen! görüşlere sahip değil. En başta söylediğimiz gibi Yunanistan,
Portekiz, İtalya gibi zordaki ülkeler kurtulsalar da kurtulmasalar da,
Almanya'ya karşı bir toplumsal tepki oluşuyor gibi, Tıpkı Almanya'daki gibi...Der Spiegel'de yayımlanan yazının orjinalini okumak için haberin devamını tıklayın.
It's Time To End the
Greek Rescue Farce
Whether it be an escrow account or a budget commissioner, the
latest demands by Germany show just how absurd negotiations over Greece's
future have become. It is high time to bring an end to this tragicomedy.
For the past two years, Greece
has wrangled with the euro-zone states and the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) over its so-called "rescue." Austerity measures have been
agreed to, aid has been paid and private creditors have been forced to accept
"voluntary" debt haircuts. Despite all this, Greece is in even worse
shape today than it was then. Its economy is shrinking, the debt ratio is
rising and the country and its banks have been cut off from capital markets.
There isn't even the slightest sign that the situation might improve. Something
has gone very wrong with this rescue.
But none of the protagonists
seem to have grasped this. They continue to negotiate as if things are business
as usual, they let one "final ultimatum" after the other pass and
they persistently fail to realize that their discussions have started to verge
on the absurd. It would be a lot better to end this farce.
For weeks now, the Greek
government has been negotiating with private creditors and the troika comprised
of the IMF, European Union and European Central Bank (ECB) over a second
bailout package. But it is already clear that this aid package will not save
the country. It appears it will only delay a Greek insolvency -- and it will
serve to create new hardships for the country's population.
It is time for politicians to
admit that their carrot and stick strategy has failed. The idea that the
country can be freed from its debt quagmire though austerity programs and aid
pledges tied to conditions just isn't going to work. It won't even work if
private creditors forgive part of the country's debt.
Broken Promises
For months, Greek government
politicians as well as the so-called rescuers in Berlin, Paris and Brussels
have all been deceiving themselves. Each supposedly final rescue package is
followed by yet another, and austerity pledges aren't being adhered to.
That has a lot to do with
domestic political considerations. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French
President Nicolas Sarkozy must convey to their voters that they have the situation
and, especially the Greeks, under control. Meanwhile, the government in Athens
must, out of self-preservation, limit the burdens to its own people as much as
possible.
That's why both sides
repeatedly agree to promises that everyone knows they will not be able to keep.
The current rescue package, for example, officially agreed at the euro summit
at the end of October, already has to be improved because it has become too
small.
The Greek economy is shrinking
faster than assumed. And the austerity plan Greece approved last summer under
pressure from its euro-zone partners is also failing to live up to
expectations. That's no wonder, either, because €50 billion of the €78 billion
in total savings pledged was tied to proceeds from privatizations that, not
surprisingly, have failed to generate the profits expected.
Out of Thin Air
The truth is that it must have
been obvious to all parties concerned, including the Germans, that the figures
were pulled out of thin air. What kind of investor would invest so much money
in a country that, for the foreseeable future, will be stuck in a serious
economic depression?
The supposed rescue efforts
have culminated in the latest German proposals. The German government would
like to send a "budget commissioner" to Athens to keep an eye on the
Greeks. If that doesn't work, then the Germans also want, at the very least, to
be able to impound Greek accounts if they don't pay back their debts through an
escrow account.
The suggestions have
justifiably provoked outrage. Quite apart from the humiliation these measures
would entail for the Greeks, Athens would almost certainly find a way to
circumvent them. In the end, Germany would wind up turning an entire nation
into its enemy without even gaining anything.
Greece Must Go Bankrupt
Perhaps, the Greece rescuers on
both sides of the negotiating table should try being honest for a change.
Here's the truth: If the country is to lastingly reduce its mountain of debt
and, at some point, be able to borrow money on the capital markets again, then
it needs a comprehensive debt haircut. In other words, it needs to go bankrupt.
And it's not just private
creditors who will have to forego a large part of their outstanding Greek
debts. It is also other European countries and the European Central Bank. That
would be expensive for taxpayers across Europe, and it would also be
economically risky. Indeed, no one knows what consequences a Greek bankruptcy
would have for other crisis-ridden countries like Portugal, Ireland or Italy.
But at least it would be an honest solution.
Of course, things wouldn't stop
there. The euro-zone states would also have to build a bigger firewall around
the remaining crisis countries in order to prevent contagion. They would have
to help some banks that get into trouble as a result of a debt cut. And they
would have to provide Greece with a real opportunity to get back on its feet
and start growing under its own steam -- in other words, a kind of Marshall
Plan.
All this would be very
expensive, and German taxpayers would also be forced to do what they have
feared from Day One -- which is to pay for Greece. But this solution has two
major advantages. The payments would be limited, and they would actually help
Greece.
And unlike everything that has
been negotiated up until now, the solution would also be worthy of being called
a rescue package.
