Kriz denince akla ilk
gelen uluslararası isimlerden biri Nouriel Roubini. Roubini özel hayatına ilişkin ilk kez
açıklamalarda bulundu. BBBB gazetesine verdiği röpörtajda Roubini 'Neden hiç
evlenmediniz?' sorusuna şu yanıtı verdi:" Hayatımın üç çeyreği neredeyse
seyahatlerle geçti. Profesyonel hayatta başarılı oluyorsunuz ancak, özel
hayatını biraz geriden geliyor. Hepsini birarada yapamıyorsunuz. Ayrıca hiç
araba almadım. Uçak ya da tekne de almadım. Tek tutkum contemporary art. Genç
sanatçıların eserlerini topluyorum. Tek tüketimim de bu.." Roubini,
röportajında, Avrupa ülkelerinin borçlarının düşürmek için aldığı kararların
büyümenin önünde büyük engel olduğunu ve sürdürülebilir büyümeyi sağlayacak
politiklar üretmek gerektini tekrarladı. Roubini röportajının orjinali için
Haberin devamını tıklayın.
In Europe, austerity
is now the order of the day. Is that the right approach? Or would it be wiser
to pursue growth and then, later, begin budget cuts?
Yes, while fiscal austerity could be
necessary over time, in the short run it makes the recession worse. As it is,
they are raising taxes, cutting transfer payments, and cutting government
spending. One is reducing aggregate demand and the others reduce disposable
income.
Without economic growth, the debt is
not sustainable. It becomes a vicious circle. Markets force you into austerity,
which makes the recession worse, which deepens the fiscal deficit, requiring
more austerity.
So Europe today needs policies and
strategies to restore growth. Pure austerity alone will be severely
recessionary and eventually will produce a depression.
Are you an optimist
on the future of the Arab Spring?
I have mixed feelings. In the long
run, it will be a good thing. Those regimes had to change. But I have no
illusions that it will be a smooth transition to democracy, to economic
success. The pie is very small and everybody wants a bigger share of it. It may
be a mess.
Eastern Europe had the support of
Europe, the U.S., the IMF, the ECB – 10 years of subsidization and only now are
some countries starting to do well. Many are still fragile. And that's with a
history of rule of law.
In Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, we are
very far from that. It will take a long time to stabilize.
Why have you never
married?
I spend about three-quarters of my
time travelling. Of course, everything is endogenous. You make choices,
trade-offs. You can have greater success professionally, but your personal life
takes a back seat. You cannot have it all.
You've cited the
possibility of a perfect storm – a double-dip recession in the U.S., a hard
landing in China and the fracturing, if not outright collapse, of the euro
zone. What are the odds of that?
Significant – close to 50 per cent,
unless the world changes its economic policies. But it's a 2013 or 14 or 15
story, not 2012. Because all the players for now are kicking the can down the
road.
Given that risk, the
uncertainly about North Korea, the instability in Nigeria – as well as concerns
about Europe, the U.S. and China – why are you so bearish on gold?
Gold is a risky and highly volatile
asset, silver even more so. Should everybody have some gold and silver in their
portfolio? I'd say yes. But should they be massively overweighted in it – I'm
not sure. Because as gold prices rise, people sell their shares, their winners,
to compensate for all their losers. Second, many gold positions are highly
leveraged, so any credit crunch produces margin calls and the price plummets.
Unless you are a professional, you can burn your fingers.
Do you own a car?
No car, no boat, no plane. In my
free time, I wear blue jeans. I love culture, the visual arts, literature. My
only conspicuous consumption is contemporary art, but I usually buy young
artists, even before they have gallery representation. I go to their studios. It's
a passion, not an investment.
The philosopher
George Steiner has suggested that the historic role of Jews in human history is
to be perpetual wanderers. As you accumulate your air miles, do you see
yourself in that light?
A little bit. I'm a global nomad and
gypsy. Born In Turkey, raised in Israel and Italy and now New York. I've
visited every continent except Antarctica several times in the past year. But
wherever I go, I learn.
Michael Posner is a Globe and Mail feature writer.
