1-Moody's
Belçika'nın notunu iki basamak düşürdü
2-Fitch
Fransa'nın not görünümünü negatife indirdi
3-Fitch 6 AB
ülkesini negatif izlemeye aldığını açıkladı
BELÇİKA
MOODY'S HABERİNİN ORJİNALİ
Belgium’s credit rating
was cut two levels to Aa3 by Moody’s Investors Service, which said rising
borrowing costs, slowing growth and liabilities arising from Dexia SA’s breakup
threaten to inflate the euro area’s fifth- highest debt load.Moody’s lowered
Belgium’s debt rating to the fourth-highest investment grade, from Aa1, with a
negative outlook, the ratings company said today in a statement. The action
follows Standard
& Poor’s one-step downgrade of Belgium to AA on Nov.
25. Fitch Ratings put
Belgium’s AA+ on review for a downgrade today.
Belgium’s
downgrade comes a week after European Union, in their fifth attempt to end the
debt crisis now in its third year, agreed to forge a tighter fiscal union as
the main thrust of their efforts, even as theEuropean
Central Bank resisted investor calls to step up its bond-buying
program. Fitch also lowered France’s
rating outlook today and put the grades of nations including Spain and Italy on
review, citingEurope’s
failure to find a “comprehensive solution” to the debt crisis.
“The funding
environment is an additional risk that we have in this environment,” Alexander
Kockerbeck, a senior credit officer at Moody’s, said in a telephone
interview from Frankfurt. “The risk is that things can change relatively
quickly in the funding market as we have seen in the recent past. The shift inmarket sentiment can
change quickly in this environment.”
Dexia Takeover
Belgian borrowing
costs touched the highest level in 11 years in November, with
the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond closing at 5.86 percent before
S&P’s downgrade on Nov. 25. They started surging almost two months earlier
as the caretaker government bought Dexia SA
(DEXB)’s Belgian banking unit for 4 billion euros ($5.2 billion) and
agreed to guarantee as much as 54.5 billion euros of the crisis-hit lender’s
liabilities for as long as 10 years.
The yield on
the 4.25 percent securities due September 2021 was little changed today at 4.26
percent. That’s 240 basis points, or 2.4 percentage points, more than German
Bunds of similar maturity.
Belgium’s
economy, the sixth-largest in the euro region, contracted for the first time in
more than two years in the third quarter, heaping pressure on Prime Minister
Elio Di Rupo as he tries to cut the deficit in a bid to stave off contagion
from the European debt turmoil.
Gross
domestic product declined 0.1
percent from the prior three-month period as exports shrank for a second
consecutive quarter and consumer spending fell
0.2 percent, the National Bank said on Dec. 7.
Di Rupo’s
government, which was sworn in by the king on Dec. 6, has pledged 11.3 billion
euros in spending cuts and tax increases to pare the budget
deficit to 2.8 percent of GDP next year, as demanded by the
European Union. The 2012 budget was drawn up assuming the economy would expand
0.8 percent.
FITCH'İN 6 ÜLKENİN GÖRÜNÜMÜNÜ NEGATİFE
ÇEVİRDİ(HABERİN ORJİNALİ)
Fitch Ratings-London-16 December 2011: Fitch
Ratings-London-16 December 2011:
Fitch Ratings has placed the ratings of all investment grade rated eurozone sovereigns and their debt with Negative Outlook onto Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The euro area country ceiling of 'AAA' is unaffected. The rating actions are as follows:
- Belgium 'AA+'/'Negatif izleme WN 'AA+'/görünüm negatif ('F1+' Unaffected)
- Spain 'AA-'/'F1+'/Negatif izleme 'AA-'/'F1+'/Görünüm negatif
- Slovenia 'AA-'/'F1+'/negatif izleme 'AA-'/'F1+'/Görünüm negatif
- Italy 'A+'/'F1'/negatif izleme 'A+'/'F1'/Görünüm negatif
- Ireland 'BBB+'/'F2'/Negatif izleme 'BBB+'/'F2'/Görünüm negatif
- Cyprus 'BBB'/'F3'/Negatif izleme 'BBB'/'F3'/Görünüm negatif
The RWN indicates that the above ratings are under active review and are subject to a heightened probability of downgrade in the near-term. Fitch expects to complete the review by the end of January 2012. If the review concludes that a downgrade is warranted, it is likely be limited to one or two notches.
Following the EU Summit on 9-10 December, Fitch has concluded that a 'comprehensive solution' to the eurozone crisis is technically and politically beyond reach. Despite positive commitments by EU leaders at the Summit, notably the decision to accelerate the creation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and to place less emphasis on private sector involvement (PSI), the concerns held by Fitch prior to the Summit remain pressing and have not been materially eased by the Summit outcome (also see, 'Summit Does Little To Ease Pressure on eurozone Sovereign Debt,' 12 December). Of particular concern is the absence of a credible financial backstop. In Fitch's opinion this requires more active and explicit commitment from the ECB to mitigate the risk of self-fulfilling liquidity crises for potentially illiquid but solvent Euro Area Member States (EAMS).
Fitch recognises that the policy authorities in all of the countries with sovereign ratings subject to review have embarked upon significant fiscal consolidation and structural reform and these efforts will be taken into account in the review. However, the systemic nature of the eurozone crisis is having a profoundly adverse effect on economic and financial stability across the region and for some EAMS poses near-term risks that are beginning to dominate the sovereign-specific risk fundamentals. Today's announcement is focused on those sovereigns that are potentially vulnerable to the worsening external economic and financial environment as indicated by previous negative rating actions and rating Outlooks.
The RWN is prompted by the following risk factors:
- In the absence of greater clarity on the ultimate structure of a fundamentally reformed Economic and Monetary Union and the recognition by political leaders of the potential for an EAMS to leave the eurozone, Fitch will review its assessment of the balance of risks associated with eurozone membership, especially for sovereigns potentially subject to funding stresses.
- While acknowledging the extraordinary measures the ECB has adopted to provide liquidity to the European banking sector, its continued reluctance to countenance a similar degree of support to its sovereign shareholders undermines the efforts by EAMS to put in place a credible financial 'firewall' against contagion and self-fulfilling liquidity and even solvency crises.
- The intensification of the eurozone crisis since July constitutes a significant negative shock to the region's economy and the stability of its financial sector with potentially adverse consequences for sovereign credit profiles across the region, most immediately for those placed on RWN today.
- In the absence of a 'comprehensive solution', the crisis will persist and likely be punctuated by episodes of severe financial market volatility that is a particular source of risk to the sovereign governments of those countries with levels of public debt, contingent liabilities and fiscal and financial sector financing needs that are high relative to rating peers.
In light of these heightened risks, Fitch will re-consider the assumptions and analysis that underpin its current sovereign ratings of Belgium, Slovenia, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Cyprus to ensure that the above risk factors are appropriately reflected in its sovereign ratings in accordance with its sovereign rating methodology.
The focus on investment grade rated sovereign governments with Negative Outlooks reflects previous research and analysis that indicates specific weaknesses that render them especially vulnerable to the intensification of the eurozone crisis.
However, the outcome of the review will also incorporate Fitch's current assessment of the strength of their underlying economic and credit fundamentals as reflected in their current sovereign ratings as well as recent policy measures adopted at the national level.
Fitch Ratings has placed the ratings of all investment grade rated eurozone sovereigns and their debt with Negative Outlook onto Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The euro area country ceiling of 'AAA' is unaffected. The rating actions are as follows:
- Belgium 'AA+'/'Negatif izleme WN 'AA+'/görünüm negatif ('F1+' Unaffected)
- Spain 'AA-'/'F1+'/Negatif izleme 'AA-'/'F1+'/Görünüm negatif
- Slovenia 'AA-'/'F1+'/negatif izleme 'AA-'/'F1+'/Görünüm negatif
- Italy 'A+'/'F1'/negatif izleme 'A+'/'F1'/Görünüm negatif
- Ireland 'BBB+'/'F2'/Negatif izleme 'BBB+'/'F2'/Görünüm negatif
- Cyprus 'BBB'/'F3'/Negatif izleme 'BBB'/'F3'/Görünüm negatif
The RWN indicates that the above ratings are under active review and are subject to a heightened probability of downgrade in the near-term. Fitch expects to complete the review by the end of January 2012. If the review concludes that a downgrade is warranted, it is likely be limited to one or two notches.
Following the EU Summit on 9-10 December, Fitch has concluded that a 'comprehensive solution' to the eurozone crisis is technically and politically beyond reach. Despite positive commitments by EU leaders at the Summit, notably the decision to accelerate the creation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and to place less emphasis on private sector involvement (PSI), the concerns held by Fitch prior to the Summit remain pressing and have not been materially eased by the Summit outcome (also see, 'Summit Does Little To Ease Pressure on eurozone Sovereign Debt,' 12 December). Of particular concern is the absence of a credible financial backstop. In Fitch's opinion this requires more active and explicit commitment from the ECB to mitigate the risk of self-fulfilling liquidity crises for potentially illiquid but solvent Euro Area Member States (EAMS).
Fitch recognises that the policy authorities in all of the countries with sovereign ratings subject to review have embarked upon significant fiscal consolidation and structural reform and these efforts will be taken into account in the review. However, the systemic nature of the eurozone crisis is having a profoundly adverse effect on economic and financial stability across the region and for some EAMS poses near-term risks that are beginning to dominate the sovereign-specific risk fundamentals. Today's announcement is focused on those sovereigns that are potentially vulnerable to the worsening external economic and financial environment as indicated by previous negative rating actions and rating Outlooks.
The RWN is prompted by the following risk factors:
- In the absence of greater clarity on the ultimate structure of a fundamentally reformed Economic and Monetary Union and the recognition by political leaders of the potential for an EAMS to leave the eurozone, Fitch will review its assessment of the balance of risks associated with eurozone membership, especially for sovereigns potentially subject to funding stresses.
- While acknowledging the extraordinary measures the ECB has adopted to provide liquidity to the European banking sector, its continued reluctance to countenance a similar degree of support to its sovereign shareholders undermines the efforts by EAMS to put in place a credible financial 'firewall' against contagion and self-fulfilling liquidity and even solvency crises.
- The intensification of the eurozone crisis since July constitutes a significant negative shock to the region's economy and the stability of its financial sector with potentially adverse consequences for sovereign credit profiles across the region, most immediately for those placed on RWN today.
- In the absence of a 'comprehensive solution', the crisis will persist and likely be punctuated by episodes of severe financial market volatility that is a particular source of risk to the sovereign governments of those countries with levels of public debt, contingent liabilities and fiscal and financial sector financing needs that are high relative to rating peers.
In light of these heightened risks, Fitch will re-consider the assumptions and analysis that underpin its current sovereign ratings of Belgium, Slovenia, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Cyprus to ensure that the above risk factors are appropriately reflected in its sovereign ratings in accordance with its sovereign rating methodology.
The focus on investment grade rated sovereign governments with Negative Outlooks reflects previous research and analysis that indicates specific weaknesses that render them especially vulnerable to the intensification of the eurozone crisis.
However, the outcome of the review will also incorporate Fitch's current assessment of the strength of their underlying economic and credit fundamentals as reflected in their current sovereign ratings as well as recent policy measures adopted at the national level.
