Bundan beş yıl önce Çin’li şirket ve
fonların, AB’ye yaptığı doğrudan yatırımın tutarı 1.9 milyar dolar
seviyesindeydi. Bu yılın sadece ilk yarısında, üç Çinli şirketin AB’ye yaptığı
doğrudan yatırımın (şirket satın alma ve altyapı yatırımı) miktarı bu rakamı
çoktan aştı. İzlanda’nın buzullarında tatil köyü, Macaristan’da Kimyasal üreten
fabrika, Norveç’te bir silikon şirketi... İşte Çin’in AB ekonomisinin kalbini
işgal etmeye başlamasının öyküsü:
To hear the people of Iceland describe it,
the wilderness area of Grimsstadir in the country's remote northeast is as
serene a spot as you can hope to find on the planet. From its cluster of farms
and guesthouses, you can watch the dazzling northern lights, drive to Europe's
most powerful waterfall a short distance away and, according to the area's
website, enjoy "big, beautiful crystal-clear skies and mountain
vistas."
But something far less serene has played
out in Grimsstadir in recent weeks: a battle over China's rising economic clout. A plan by Huang Nubo, the billionaire
chairman of China's Zhongkun Investment Group, to build a $200 million tourist
resort in the area has sparked one of Iceland's fiercest controversies since
its banks imploded three years ago, helping catapult markets into a global
financial crisis. With Iceland still trying to reverse its downturn, Nubo,
a former Communist Party official, proposed building a high-end hotel, Europe's
biggest nature reserve and a golf course. Iceland's officials rejected the plan
in November, suspecting that Nubo was eyeing other possibilities too, including
Iceland's huge potential for energy companies as global warming makes the
Arctic more accessible. The attempted deal, China's first major bid for a piece
of Iceland's wide-open property market, is unlikely to be the last. Iceland's
open vistas are not only appealing to the massive wave of Chinese tourists
venturing abroad, says Jonas Parello-Plesner, senior policy fellow at the
European Council on Foreign Relations in London, but they are "also linked
to China's strategic interest in the Arctic
Cash injections from China could help
Europe do everything from revamping crumbling bridges and developing high-speed
rail lines to filling a gaping hole in its rescue plan. Beijing, meanwhile,
would get a leg up on the world stage, where its influence is often blunted by
accusations by once rich Western powers of human-rights abuses and unfair trade
practices. Still, many fear that the Middle Kingdom is using the euro-zone
crisis as an opportunity to snap up the continent's prized assets at discounted
prices and win big political concessions on issues like arms sales and trade —
at a time when European leaders are in no position to bargain.
The
turn to Europe is the latest phase in China's global spending spree. The
country has plowed countless billions of dollars into resource-rich countries
in Africa and Latin America over the past decade to meet its insatiable demand
for raw materials, sealing long-term partnerships in oil and gas and in iron
ore, copper and other strategic metals. As China's middle class grows and its
workers demand higher living standards, Beijing is under pressure to make the
transition from basic industries like manufacturing and infrastructure to the
higher-end products and services pioneered by the Western world. That has made
German companies like heavy-duty-machine maker Schiess, which excels in
engineering, and design-savvy Scandinavian firms like Saab increasingly
attractive buys. As China shifts "away from emerging countries and other
Asian countries," Parello-Plesner says, "investment in Europe will
rise drastically
The
buying blowout has already begun.
China's direct investment in Europe doubled from 2009 to '10, according to the
Ministry of Commerce, and is on track to rise again this year. The figures are
still small, but the trend is upward. Just five years ago, China's direct
investment in Europe was $1.3 billion, but in the first half of 2011, three of
China's deals in Europe each exceeded that amount, according to a European
Council on Foreign Relations report co-authored by Parello-Plesner. Although
the lines are fuzzy, China's forays into Europe include investments by its
government and sovereign wealth funds, deals with rich Chinese private
investors, and Chinese corporations buying up European firms.
Beijing's official splash-outs on euro-zone debt have gained the most
attention. Last year, the government purchased $500 million in Spanish debt and
pledged to buy more from Italy and Greece as a way to prop up the euro and
debt-ridden European consumers, the biggest buyers of Chinese exports. It has also been on a
mission to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves away from U.S. dollars.
Thanks to a steady stream of euro purchases over the past several years, China
now holds an estimated one-quarter of its assets in euros. But as the euro-zone
crisis has worsened, Chinese officials have backed away from their euro-buying
frenzy. "There's a perception in China on the official level and among
companies that there is a big sign flashing over Europe which says RISK, RISK,
RISK," says Duncan Freeman, research fellow at the Brussels Institute of
Contemporary China Studies. The Chinese government is also facing public
pressure to spend more at home on restive workers squeezed by rising inflation
and weak social services. When Chinese officials make statements about alleviating
Europe's debt problems, the Chinese public asks, "Why should China spend
its carefully saved financial resources to bail out much wealthier Europeans
who have been irresponsible?" says Steven Tsang, professor of contemporary
Chinese studies at Nottingham University.(See photos of the making of modern China.)
As a result, Chinese buyers are homing in
not so much on sovereign debt or public assets as on Europe's luxury brands and
strategic industries. The car industry is a prime target as Chinese carmakers
struggle to break into Western markets and shake their shoddy made-in-China
image. In October, Chinese car companies Pang Da and Youngman agreed to buy the
struggling Swedish automaker Saab for $140 million, and last year China's Geely
Automotive bought Ford Motors' Volvo car unit for $1.5 billion.
Higher-tech and industrial buys give China
a way around Europe's tight grip on tech exports. Wanhua Industrial Group bought a controlling stake in a chemical firm
in Hungary for $1.6 billion, and BlueStar bought a silicon company in Norway
for $2 billion. And in June, three Chinese solar-panel manufacturers raised $10
billion from two of China's state-owned banks to expand operations in Europe.
In the past few months, China Investment Corp., China's sovereign wealth fund,
has expressed interest in Italy's national oil company ENI and its largest
power company, Enel, which could raise more than $40 billion for Italy's flailing
government. "Chinese companies used to think that investing in ailing
companies was the right strategy. But more and more, they realize they rather
want to invest into the best companies," says André Loesekrug-Pietri,
chairman and managing partner of Beijing-based private-equity fund A Capital.(Read "Can China save the euro?")
China also wants a bigger stake in
building out Europe's outdated infrastructure. But the offer by its sovereign
wealth fund to partake in upgrading European roads, ports and other heavy-duty
projects comes with a condition: that China operate the projects as a partner
rather than working under European firms as a contractor. Last year, Chinese
shipping giant COSCO signed a 35-year lease on the bigger of two piers in
Athens' Piraeus port. Under the $5 billion deal, China overhauled the port's
shipping facilities — something the cash-strapped Greek government was
incapable of doing — so that now, the Chinese-run terminal can handle about
5,000 containers a day.
Such offers are hardly unattractive to
E.U. governments. Despite their wariness, European officials have diligently
courted Chinese business. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was given royal treatment
during his July visit to Britain, Germany and Hungary, and Hungarian officials
blocked human-rights groups from demonstrating during his trip, even though Hungary
has long provided sanctuary for Tibetan exiles. For many E.U. officials, there
are simply more urgent issues than human rights, namely the potential for
China's mountain of cash to ease their debt burdens.
But there are big concerns about the
downside of accepting China's financial help. "In the future, when the Dalai
Lama comes to Europe, the European governments will think twice about making
statements about China's human rights," says Nicola Casarini, research
fellow at the E.U.'s Institute for Security Studies in Paris. "China will
expect from Europe a so-called friendly behavior, and that means restraining
from publicly accusing them."
Cozier ties could also give Chinese firms
an unfair advantage in Europe's wide-open economy if, as China shops freely for
European assets, many Chinese industries remain closed to foreign investors.
The Chinese government's close relations with business add to the discomfort.
Chinese delegations to Europe often mix government officials with executives,
and the government has the power to block business deals. "Many see Chinese
investment as having a political agenda, or that all investors are arms of the
state," says Freeman. In exchange for offers to purchase more euro-zone
debt, for instance, Chinese officials have been demanding that Europe lift the
arms embargo it imposed after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.
Official
dealings like those are muddying the waters for private investors like Huang,
who accused Icelandic officials of Cold War — era prejudice for rejecting his
resort proposal after initially welcoming it. Huang, who had worked as a
minister in the Chinese Central Propaganda Department and the Ministry of
Construction, said Western countries were demanding that China open its markets
to the West while "closing their doors to Chinese investment."
Beijing has also pressed the E.U. to
approve its "free-market economy status," a technical term within the
World Trade Organization (WTO) under which E.U. countries would drop their
antidumping legal cases against China, the country with the largest number
outstanding. The new status would make it easier for China to export goods like
leather shoes and bicycles to Europe. French and Italian officials, who once
fiercely opposed the idea, have softened their stance as Europe's crisis has
deepened. "In the last month, the mood has really changed," Casarini
says.
Whether China can win these concessions
depends in part on how bad the euro crisis gets — and on whether Chinese
diplomacy can allay European doubts. Tsang believes Beijing is fueling its bad
image in the West by expressing little concern for Europe's crisis.
"There's not enough recognition that helping the E.U. is in their common
interest," he says. That attitude could intensify during the coming months
as China braces for major changes with President Hu Jintao's retirement,
scheduled for next year. Chinese politicians "will avoid taking any risks
which backfire on individual leaders," says Tsang.
Chinese investors have their own qualms.
At a Hong Kong investment summit in November, Gao Xiqing, general manager of
China Investment Corp., complained about foreigners who expect China to
"go and invest, leave our money there and just depart. We won't get seats
on the board. We won't have any say in how a place is run. That's not how
things are done." To avoid political haranguing, China has supported
expanding Europe's bailout fund by working through the International Monetary
Fund rather than dealing directly with European governments, a proposal backed
by other emerging countries like Brazil. But European officials have balked at
China's insistence on gaining greater say in the IMF as well as having its
currency included in the IMF's basket currency, the Special Drawing Right.
With Europe's debt threatening to tip the
world into another all-out recession, leaders of the once rich world can no
longer afford excessive pride. China may be sidelined by Old World clubs like
the IMF and WTO. But in one-on-one dealings, its economic largesse holds sway.
Even if China's cash infusion to Europe falls through, it is sure to continue
gobbling up other European treasures. For beleaguered countries like Greece and
Spain, the deals out of China are looking better every day.
